From the Center

Donald Trump is a businessman. He is also a showman. For most of his career before entering politics, Trump has expertly leveraged these two aspects of his persona to his benefit. His media savvy has always allowed him to bring outsized attention to his professional work. His background in business has given him a valuable platform to be heard by the audiences most important to him.

Even during his first term as president, Trump’s professional background encouraged him to make decisions that would be seen positively on Wall Street, and so the health of the stock market became a primary driving force of his administration. But as his career in the private sector moves further into his rearview mirror, the president has begun to prioritize the amount of attention he receives from reporters, from social media and from voters as an equally important objective.

But now Trump the businessman and Trump the showman stand in conflict. On issues like tariffs, taxes, and government spending, Trump is facing choices which pit these two sides of himself against each other. One Trump obsesses over the bottom line. The other craves the spotlight. After several careers where the two Trumps have cooperated to mutual benefit, he now finds them on a collision course.

Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly stressed the importance of imposing fees on foreign imports into this country (“Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”) There is a heated debate among economists as to whether his goals would helpful or harmful to consumers, but Trump and his advisors are convinced that such steps would create American manufacturing jobs and greatly strengthen the nation’s economy. One of his first acts as president was to announce a sizable increase in tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and he has since broadened his ambitions to impact U.S. trade with much of the rest of the world.

But at the same time, Trump has repeatedly reversed himself on his proposed increases with both of our North American neighbors, setting and then extending deadlines and delaying fees before reimposing them. Given the immense amount of trade that this country does with both Canada and Mexico, this back-and-forth has rattled the markets, made employers uneasy about their hiring decisions and frightening consumers who worry about the likely price increases in food, household goods and other necessities that they will soon be facing.

Trump the businessman knows that this uncertainty is bad for the country’s job-creators and therefore for its economic health. But Trump the showman has learned that creating drama is the best way to ensure continued public and media attention. His flair for conflict, controversy and spectacle is a key ingredient in his ability to dominate the national conversation: he understands that keeping us in suspense allows him to remain in the spotlight.

In the last few days, Trump has begun to suggest that some economic pain might be coming our way. In his speech to Congress last week, he referred to “a little disturbance.” And in a weekend interview, he pointedly did not rule out the potential for a recession in 2025 in exchange for longer-term growth. This may be an acknowledgment of the unavoidable, but it might also reflect that economic growth is only his second most important priority—the showman comes first.

The other plausible explanation for Trump’s inconsistency is that he sees these tariffs as a negotiating tool to achieve other goals. But both countries seem to be conceding to his pressure on border policy, drug interdiction and other matters. Other than Canada simply accepting its fate as the 51st United State, it’s not clear what else he wants in return.

In recent days, the president appears to be putting the brakes on Elon Musk’s efforts to dramatically reduce the size of government, creating uncertainty for federal workers and many other organizations and individuals who have become accustomed to federal support. Trump also seems content to let congressional Republicans argue about tax and spending priorities for next year’s budget, again prolonging the ambiguity and insecurity that many Americans will feel until these decisions are finalized.

Trump wants the economy to succeed, and he believes that reducing the size of government, cutting taxes and imposing tariffs are necessary to achieve that goal. But while he desires growth, he requires attention. It will be fascinating to see if at some point he decides that the former will do him more good than the latter.

Want to talk about this topic more? Join Dan for his webinar, “The Dan Schnur Political Report." And read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.

Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, Pepperdine University, and the University of Southern California, where he teaches courses in politics, communications and leadership. Dan is a No Party Preference voter, but previously worked on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, serving as the national Director of Communications for the 2000 presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John McCain and the chief media spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson. He has a Center bias.

This piece was reviewed and edited by Clare Ashcraft, Bridging Coordinator & Media Analyst (Center bias).