From the Center

Anyone who takes the time to read a column like this one already knows the economic havoc that Donald Trump has caused since announcing his “Liberation Day” tariffs last week. By imposing the largest tax increases on international imports in more than a century, and by the sheer unpredictability and haphazardness of the decision-making process, Trump has undermined consumer, business, and investor confidence to cause one of the most significant stock market corrections in history—caused not by war, natural disaster, or pandemic, but by the capriciousness of a single political leader.

Trump has made it clear that his approach is the new reality and that he has no intention of changing course. He has been posting on social media almost non-stop since his announcement to convince a global audience of his conviction, most notably his all-capital message on Truth Social: “My Policies Will Never Change.” His top surrogates were all instructed to reinforce the message that the tariffs were not a negotiating ploy but the consistent and unbending policy that the United States would now assert on the world stage.

But the president himself has already undermined that insistence, suggesting that countries that were willing to capitulate to US demands could decrease their tariffs. Trump may have given away his primary motivation in a conversation with reporters last week when he said: 

“Every country is calling us. Now they will do anything for us. That’s the beauty of what we do. We put ourselves in the driver’s seat. If we would have asked these countries to do us a favor, they would have said no. Now they will do anything for us.”

Trump added, “The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.”

What’s most notable about this quote is not only that Trump was willing to contradict his own stated Administration policy, but how much he revels in being at the center of attention. And more specifically, how much he loves forcing others to beg for his mercy. The glee with which he has talked about the way several of the nation’s largest law firms have succumbed to his demands has been palpable, and he has always taken noticeable joy when Republican politicians who had resisted him ultimately submit. The prospect of world leaders pleading their case to him is even more tantalizing.

But the most savvy Trump-ologists have always reminded us that he is as much a symptom of existing public sentiment as a cause of changes in the voters’ mood. A candidate espousing protectionist economic goals (along with restrictionist immigration policy and a diminished international diplomatic and military presence) could not succeed in a country whose citizens were not already of a pronounced isolationist mindset. After every major military conflict and every significant economic downturn for the second half of our country’s existence, Americans have repeatedly turned inward. Trump’s election last year was fueled by voter exhaustion and disenchantment caused by the Great Recession, the pandemic and subsequent inflation, and wars in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza. Trump was a voice for that widespread frustration and fatigue.

The challenge that Trump—and the country—now face is that his prescribed remedy is likely to make matters even worse. The reason that these are the largest tariffs since the early 20th century is that for several decades almost all mainstream economists and successful leaders have seen the benefits that come from the United States shaping and leading international economic activity and growth. It’s theoretically possible that Trump’s competing theory might be correct, but there is no credible evidence over the last century to support his beliefs.

Faced with a plummeting stock market and declining public support, Trump is likely to enter into a frenzy of deal-making to lessen the damage to American consumers and stockholders. But the characteristically mercurial nature of his approach unnerves investors and an unpredictable path forward will make investors hesitant to commit to the large-scale manufacturing projects that the president believes will result from his strategy.

When Trump won the 2016 election, many world leaders saw him as an aberration to be survived for four years before the US returned to normalcy. Their reaction to his trade war declaration last week has been much different: they are talking about how this is the end of an era and the age of American leadership and allyship is no more. It will take more than one of Trump’s successors to convince them otherwise.

Want to talk about this topic more? Join Dan for his webinar, “The Dan Schnur Political Report." And read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.

Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, Pepperdine University, and the University of Southern California, where he teaches courses in politics, communications and leadership. Dan is a No Party Preference voter, but previously worked on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, serving as the national Director of Communications for the 2000 presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John McCain and the chief media spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson. He has a Center bias.

This piece was reviewed and edited by Clare Ashcraft, Bridging Coordinator & Media Analyst (Center bias).