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https://www.wsj.com/articles/beware-wishful-thinking-about-inflation-and-recess…
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Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Inflation has peaked. The Fed’s tightening has accomplished its mission. Strong labor market and consumer fundamentals will keep any recession mild.

These are among the story lines providing a tailwind to stocks in recent weeks. They feed hopes the Federal Reserve has achieved a soft landing: bringing inflation down to 2% without pushing up unemployment or tipping the economy into recession.

A reality check is in order. A soft landing is certainly possible, but these story lines look more like wishful thinking than a tough-minded appraisal of the Fed’s task. Let’s review.