Happy Valentine’s Day and a solemn Ash Wednesday to all.

On the menu today: This is going to be another grim one if you’re hoping for big Republican wins in November. Democrat Tom Suozzi’s victory over Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip in the special election in New York’s third congressional district isn’t an enormous shock, but the margin is ominous. The issues of an insecure border and dealing with an influx of migrants were front and center in voters’ minds, and yet the GOP candidate still couldn’t win. Republicans fell short in a Pennsylvania state house election yesterday, too, further evidence that the suburbs — which used to be fertile territory — continue to reject what the GOP is offering. And there’s little sign that anything will change between now and November. But hey, good news: We had a terrific guest on the Three Martini Lunch podcast yesterday.

GOP Losses Continue to Mount

You can over-analyze special House elections. The turnout is low, the electorate is usually not as tuned in as in a November election, and you usually have two lesser-known candidates.

But all things being equal, Republicans would have preferred to win yesterday’s special election in New York’s third congressional district than lose it. (The House now has 219 Republicans; 212 Democrats; one Democratic congressman-elect who will be sworn in soon; and three vacancies: two in GOP-leaning districts, and one in a Democratic-leaning district.)

Yes, this is a Biden district covering parts of Long Island and Queens; the president beat Donald Trump here, 54 percent to 44 percent, in 2020. But in 2022, Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin won this district by the same margin, and the infamous and then uninvestigated George Santos won this district last cycle, 53 percent to 44 percent. Republicans can win in New York’s third congressional district, if they just get a bit of wind at their backs.