Joe Biden thinks this race is a toss-up. That’s his line when ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos interviewed him, and it only exacerbated the ongoing issues with the president, his messaging, and his overall re-election effort. It’s simply false, much like the lie that got blown up recently about his trip to the neurologist—a narrative that has gone through more surgeries than a transgender person. Yet, it’s the president’s deep denial that anything is wrong and that his June 27 debate with Donald Trump, universally seen as a disaster, would pass. 

It hasn’t. Biden admits he was terrible but didn’t lose because Trump didn’t gain ground. Yes and no on that front—by losing supporters, Joe, that’s Trump’s gain. And the national polls aren’t the best gauge either. I understand this camp uses it because it’s the only good news this campaign can ship off to donors. Even in those polls, Biden is trailing Trump. Biden was already losing to the former president pre-debate in the battleground states. It’s even worse now. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report did a deep dive into the main swing states and found what we’ve already known—that Biden is heading toward an Electoral College wipeout if these numbers hold. In short, six key states have become more Trump-friendly, but Biden thinks he can still win with one-third of brain capacity.