As we move into summer, more than two years since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the words “new wave” are probably the last thing anyone wants to hear. Yet it is true that recent UK data (as well as data from Florida and other places) indicates that sublineages of the Omicron variant, BA.4 and BA.5, are kicking off a new wave of cases. With the pandemic no longer dominating the news in the way it once did, it’s worth taking stock of where we are and what needs to be done.

After all, these variations on Omicron are not more severe, but they do have the capacity to reinfect people, even those who have had a previous version of Omicron. This is further evidence that reaching “herd immunity” (where enough people are vaccinated or infected to stop further circulation) against Covid-19 is probably impossible. 

Looking over the past two years, and across different places, a wave of Covid-19 cases every three months seems to be the pattern. So it’s not surprising that this is happening again, and we should expect another wave this winter. While the idea of the disease circulating might be anxiety-provoking, we now have a wealth of scientific knowledge and tools to deploy. The focus should be on what these cases mean for long Covid and for hospitalisations. Plus, there’s good news: new research indicates Omicron is indeed milder than Delta by a substantial amount in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.

Of course, it would be better to avoid getting Covid-19 once, or repeatedly, given the increasing number of negative health outcomes the disease is linked to. The challenge is how best to do that, balanced against the costs entailed in avoiding Covid completely: the vector for this disease is other humans who we (largely) enjoy seeing, being close to, or must see for work reasons. Humans are social beings, and for many people a large part of our quality of life is mixing with others, as seen by the rapid return to festivals, celebrations and social events.