Data obtained by CNN from New York’s largest health-care provider indicates you’re very unlikely to become severely ill with Covid-19 if you’re under age 60, up to date on your Covid-19 vaccines and don’t have underlying health problems, backing up a government plan expected to be announced this week that will ease up on coronavirus restrictions.

If you’re young, healthy and vaccinated, “you’re going to be in a pretty good place,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a vaccine adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “You’re going to be well-protected.”

The data from Northwell Health shows that of the nearly 2,000 people hospitalized there for Covid-19 in May, June and July, about 80% were over 60. Nearly 90% had an underlying health problem such as hypertension or diabetes.

Vaccination status was also critically important. The vast majority of hospitalized patients were not up to date on their Covid-19 vaccinations. Those who were up to date and still ended up in the hospital were mostly over 65.

This summer, the highly transmissible Omicron BA.5 variant has caused infections to soar, but because Omicron causes milder illness and a large proportion of the country has been vaccinated, previously infected or both, hospitalizations nationwide are lower than at many previous points in the pandemic.

Dr. Jill Kalman, Northwell’s chief medical officer, noted that when Covid patients do end up in the hospital, they fare much better than they once did.

“The mortality rate now is very low: It’s around 2%, and it was around 10 to 12% during Delta,” she said. “And if they do get into the ICU, they’re not staying as long. In the first wave, we were seeing patients in the ICU for 15, 20, 30 days, and it’s a fraction of that now.”

CNN shared the data with CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who said it meshed with her recent statements that “we are in a much better place than we were.”

She added that national data from April through June shows hospitalizations were about four times higher among people over 50 compared with younger adults.

CDC to tailor messages to specific groups

Based on CDC documents obtained by CNN, the agency is expected to announce this week that it will get rid of the 6 feet social distancing guidance for the general population and end existing quarantine measures for those who have been exposed to the virus. People who test positive for Covid-19 should still isolate for at least five days, and then continue to take precautions, including wearing a well-fitting mask for another five days.

For other measures, the CDC is expected to tailor guidelines to high-risk groups moreso than earlier in the pandemic.

For example, the new guidance is expected to suggest that the elderly, the immune-compromised and others at high risk of becoming severely ill with Covid-19 should wear masks indoors in about 80% of US counties, whereas for the general population, the agency currently recommends indoor masking for only about half of US counties.

Advice about Covid-19 screening testing also varies by group. The CDC document obtained by CNN indicates the agency will not recommend it for most settings, but will advise that it could be helpful in high-risk congregate settings, such as nursing homes.

Schaffner, a member of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, says at this point in the pandemic, it makes sense to do more tailoring of messages.