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For Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, deciding when to cut interest rates is hard enough: Too soon, and inflation could rise again. Too late, and unemployment might shoot higher.
The challenge is doubly difficult this year because he is doing it in the glare of election-year politics.
Allies of former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, have already argued that the central bank is seeking to help President Biden by signaling that cuts are coming.
Meanwhile, some Democrats inside and outside the West Wing are nervous that the current president’s re-election prospects will be jeopardized by a central bank that keeps rates too high for too long after both the Fed and the administration misjudged inflation.