A graph from ZeroHedge (Lean Right bias) posted on X circulated to tens of millions of people, purporting that in the 2012, 2016, and 2024 presidential elections, Democrats only received about 66 million votes in each presidential election, but received 81 million votes in 2020.

The graph is misleading and implies the 2024 vote count is complete, which it’s not.

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but can we go back to what happened here? pic.twitter.com/FkScNHivuU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 6, 2024

There are two major issues with the graph from ZeroHedge: first and most importantly, the graph is comparing complete election data from 2012, 2016, and 2020 to incomplete election data from 2024. Less than 80% of the total expected votes have been counted as of Thursday morning. In addition, the graph is truncated, meaning the y axis does not start at zero (it instead starts at 50 million). This can create the impression of a much larger difference in 2020 than there actually was.

Several commentators on X also spread the same narrative about the purported vote gap. Posts purporting that as many as 20 million Democratic votes disappeared from 2020 to 2024 have amassed over 50 million views on the platform as of November 7, though not all of them contained the graph from ZeroHedge.

At the time of those X posts, only about 137 million votes were counted in the 2024 election, as seen in the graph. A University of Florida Election Lab preliminary analysis suggests voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election may be closer to 156 million, which is lower than the 2020 turnout of 158 million, but about 19 million higher than when the misleading graph went viral on November 6.

Harris’ vote count was 66 million on Nov. 6, but increased to nearly 74 million and counting at the time of this writing (November 18 at 8pm ET). Trump’s stands at nearly 77 million. These numbers are expected to increase as more votes are counted in several states.

RELATED: Facts vs Myths – Was the 2020 Election Stolen?

Looking at expected turnout from The Associated Press (Lean Left bias) and using The New York Times’ (Lean Left bias) Election Model containing a popular vote estimate, AllSides created a rough estimate of what the turnout for Democrats and Republicans may be, using already available trends in election data. (We will update this as numbers continue to come in.)

Contrary to the theory that Harris only received about 66 million votes, which is circulating online, we found Harris is estimated to receive about 75M votes (likely between 74-77M) and Trump is estimated to receive about 78M votes (likely between 76-79 million).

Our estimate (which is just that, an estimate!) puts the vote gap between Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024 at about 6 million – significantly less than the 15, 18, or 20 million vote gap that online commentators are speculating. Trump is still expected to win the popular vote.

Why has the election been called for Trump if so many ballots aren’t counted yet? This is because most of the states still counting a significant number of votes have already been called in the Electoral College. California, for example, has 94% of its estimated vote counted as of November 18th at 8pm ET. And with a population the size of California, that means that over one million votes may still be outstanding in the state, according to Fox News (Right bias).

RELATED: Media Bias Alert – News Outlets Show Bias After Trump Projected Win

Follow the 2024 Presidential Election using AllSides.

Blog by Bias Research Manager & Data Journalist Andrew Weinzierl (Lean Left bias).

Reviewed by Henry A. Brechter, editor-in-chief, (Center bias) and Julie Mastrine, Director of Marketing and Media Bias Ratings (Lean Right).