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Caucus

How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire?

Iowa and New Hampshire get a lot of attention, but their records in picking presidents, let alone nominees, is spotty (as you can see from the chart above). But that doesn't mean the states don't matter. They have been effective at weeding the field of candidates, and they're about momentum for those later states.

Plus, in the last 40 years, just one person has gone on to win the presidency after losing both I

The Iowa caucuses are closer than you think

The Iowa caucuses are 11 weeks away. That is a lifetime in a political campaign. Except that it’s really not.

The campaign is about to enter its holiday period — a time when people, including Iowans and New Hampshire types, start paying much more attention to how to stuff their turkey and what’s under the Christmas tree than they do to politics. TV ads, stump speeches and even debates tend to get lost — or plain ignored — in the holiday maelstrom.