While some people anxiously watch the stock market for signs of a recession, others look for more subtle cues that the economy is in trouble.

One of them is Catherine De Noire, a manager of a legal brothel, a Ph.D. candidate in organizational psychology and an influencer. When business at her brothel unexpectedly dips, De Noire takes it as a sign that the economy is in trouble.

Donald Trump has a gift for inheriting valuable things. And the economy of January 2025 was no exception.

When the president took office, stock values were hitting record highs, unemployment was hovering near historic lows, and consumer confidence was stable. Wall Street expected that business conditions would only improve. Among investors, conventional wisdom held that Trump was serious about corporate tax cuts — but not about launching an unprovoked trade war against America’s closest allies (a proposition too pointless and self-destructive to be sincere).

During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump promised Americans he would usher in a new era of prosperity.

Now two months into his presidency, he's painting a slightly different picture.

He has warned that it will be hard to bring down prices and the public should be prepared for a "little disturbance" before he can bring back wealth to the US.

Meanwhile, analysts say the odds of a downturn are increasing, pointing to his policies.

So is Trump about to trigger a recession in the world's largest economy?

Stock futures edged higher Tuesday after concerns that a recession would hit the U.S. economy sparked a broad sell-off on Monday.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were last up 65 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.3%, as did Nasdaq-100 futures.

U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday, with concerns about the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on economic growth spooking investors.

The US stock market continued to drop on Monday as the White House denied that Donald Trump’s trade policies were causing lasting chaos within the economy.

• Asked directly about the threat of a recession this year, President Trump warned there would be a "period of transition" as he renegotiates trade relationships with the help of constantly shifting tariffs.
President Donald Trump is refusing to comfort Americans worried about the effects of his tariffs policy and isn't ruling out the chance of a recession in 2025.

A key economic adviser to President Donald Trump on Monday pushed back on talk of recession stemming from uncertainty around his administration's tariff policies, even as a survey of American households showed consumers growing more pessimistic about their prospects, and U.S. stocks extended their slide.

In an interview with CNBC, Kevin Hassett, who heads the National Economic Council, said there were many reasons to be bullish about the U.S. economy, despite some predictions of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter and concerns about inflation.

President Donald Trump is confident that the country’s economy has a bright future — but he isn’t ruling out a 2025 recession just yet.

“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said when pressed about the possibility of a recession during a recorded interview that aired on “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.”

The U.S. economy has started to show signs it is losing momentum.

Growing uncertainty about the Trump White House’s economic plans, including layoffs of federal workers carried out by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, has caused consumers and businesses to further question the economic outlook. If this results in a serious pullback, the U.S. economy could be headed for a recession in the next few quarters.