It may not be a presidential or midterm election year, but 2021 has its fair share of important votes happening on Tuesday. Virginia’s gubernatorial election is clearly the most noteworthy race, but several other elections — from legislative races to mayoral campaigns to ballot measures to special elections — could have big consequences as well. 

Tuesday’s main event will happen in Virginia, where Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin are vying to be the commonwealth’s next governor. And the race is pretty much tied, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Virginia polling average, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if either candidate comes out on top.

On one hand, the competitiveness of the race is a bit surprising as Virginia has leaned Democratic in recent years. It voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020, and it has elected a Democrat in every statewide election dating back to 2012.1 But on the other hand, this D+5 state, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean,2 is still very susceptible to shifts in the national environment. And thanks to an unpopular Democratic president in the White House, the electoral environment currently favors the GOP.