A proposed deal on border security, announced after long and painstaking negotiations in the Senate, has stumbled out of the gate.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has declared the push “dead on arrival.” In the Senate — which is typically more open to bipartisan moderation than the House — at least 19 GOP senators have declared they will vote against the bill.

Even if the proposal were able to draw the 60 votes it needs to pass in the Senate — a scenario that relies on overwhelming support from Democrats— it is enormously difficult to see it passing the House. As of Monday evening, not a single Republican House member had publicly backed the proposal.

If the effort fails, it will be a setback both to Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), who was the main GOP negotiator, and to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Its downfall, however, would be another victory for former President Trump. Such an outcome would show that his hawkish positions on immigration can still carry the day and that his broader grip on the GOP remains strong.