Huge pieces of Republicans’ 2017 tax law are scheduled to lapse after next year, and Democrats see that deadline as a rare chance to reset fiscal policy and raise taxes on corporations and high-income households.

Policymakers and analysts expect a yearlong fight and Christmas-season negotiations to prevent tax increases from hitting most Americans after Dec. 31, 2025, when the law’s cuts end. Lawmakers are starting to think through what leverage they have—and how and when to use it. 

“Tax policy will be front and center on the 2025 agenda because the system will undergo an earthquake even if Congress does nothing,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.). “We must have our own agenda and we will.”

The shape of the 2025 tax fight hinges on the 2024 election results, with the House, Senate and White House all up for grabs this November. Divided control of the government could yield familiar brinkmanship on tax policy, like the frequent deadline-driven fights over the debt ceiling and government spending. If neither party has enough power to impose its will, a multitrillion-dollar stare-down could bleed into 2026.