The big shift of Latino voters toward the Republican Party in 2020, combined with smaller shifts among Asian-American and Black voters, suggests that these traditionally Democratic groups could be more open to GOP candidates in midterm elections across the country this year.  

National figures show that U.S. Latino, Asian-American and Black voters backed President Joe Biden in 2020, though by smaller margins than Democrats won four years earlier. At the same time, more of these voters turned out than in 2016, producing a net gain in votes in many places for Democrats.

Source: Pew Research Center poll of 3,014 (2016) and 9,668 (2020) validated general election voters conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 12, 2016 and Nov. 12-17, 2020; margins of error for 2020: 5.8 pct. pts. (Black), 8.1 pct. pts. (Hispanic) and 1.9 pct. pts. (white)

Midterm elections typically have lower turnout than presidential contests, though the Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade appears to have driven up voter registration in some states this summer. Below are some places where the voting preferences of minority groups could have a big impact this fall.