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Join Living Room Conversations, our civil dialogue partner, and America Indivisible for a nationwide conversation on April 13, Thomas Jefferson’s 276th birthday. "Reckoning with Jefferson: A Nationwide Conversation on Race, Religion, and the America We Want to Be" will be held via in-person and online video discussions. Sign up today!

What America Do We Want to Be?

Join Living Room Conversations, our civil dialogue partner, and America Indivisible for a nationwide conversation on April 13, Thomas Jefferson’s 276th birthday. "Reckoning with Jefferson: A Nationwide Conversation on Race, Religion, and the America We Want to Be" will be held via in-person and online video discussions. Sign up today!

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After a summer of legislative successes and a strong performance in November’s midterm elections temporarily silenced President Biden’s critics inside the Democratic Party, his recent scandal involving potential mishandling of classified documents is reigniting discussion on if Biden should be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 election.

FiveThirtyEight currently lists Biden’s approval rating at 43.9%, with the latest data from January 13, the day after Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the President.

Despite the present scandal, Paul Krugman cited positive economic outlook numbers, including declining inflation, to paint a positive picture for the Democrats heading into 2024, stating, “things look far better for Democrats now than almost anyone imagined until very recently.” Krugman tentatively predicted a Democratic victory in 2024 behind Biden, stating that “even with cooperation from too many in the media,” Republicans will be unable to “convince Americans that the Biden administration is riddled with corruption.”

An article in the Washington Examiner recounted Biden’s late success in the 2020 presidential election democratic primary to determine it too soon to judge his 2024 potential. Referring to the present scandal Biden finds himself in, the article states, “it is entirely possible that by the time it matters electorally, stories about where Biden kept classified documents and what Hunter was up to will be as forgotten as headlines suggesting he could lose to Buttigieg or Sen. Bernie Sanders.”

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If the midterm elections could be rerun this month, Democrats would probably end up in full control of Congress. President Biden’s approval ratings are rising. Inflation is down, and consumers are feeling more optimistic. And Americans are getting a better look at the G.O.P.’s actual policy agenda, which is deeply unpopular.

If it’s possible to sum up a presidency in a single number, that number would be the president’s approval rating — or the share of Americans who approve of the job he’s doing. Arguably, that simple percentage can determine the fate of an entire presidency.

For instance, a high approval rating can marshal support for a president’s agenda and minimize his party’s losses in the midterm elections — not to mention help the president himself win reelection. But a low approval rating can be electoral poison and imply that a president has lost the mandate to govern entirely.

President Joe Biden is increasingly looking like a candidate for reelection, but the latest controversies encircling his White House raise new questions about whether Democrats should welcome that fact.

The pendulum on Biden’s reelection swung back in his favor after Democrats successfully weathered the midterm elections, retaining the Senate and minimizing House losses. Biden was not immediately reduced to lame-duck status.