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Join Living Room Conversations, our civil dialogue partner, and America Indivisible for a nationwide conversation on April 13, Thomas Jefferson’s 276th birthday. "Reckoning with Jefferson: A Nationwide Conversation on Race, Religion, and the America We Want to Be" will be held via in-person and online video discussions. Sign up today!

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The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2023 global growth forecast on Tuesday, warning that financial volatility and persistent inflation had raised the risk of a “hard landing” for the world economy. 

The Details: The IMF predicted global productivity would grow 2.3% in 2023 — one percentage point less than it previously predicted in January. An executive summary of the report said “lower food and energy prices and improved supply-chain functioning,” combined with “recent financial sector turmoil,” contributed to a “rocky” economic recovery. In the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, the IMF said, “Uncertainty is high and the balance of risks has shifted firmly to the downside so long as the financial sector remains unsettled.” The IMF also predicted that interest rates, raised by central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve to fight inflation, would come down once inflation subsided. 

For Context: Some predictions of a recessionary “hard landing” in 2023 were replaced with hopes for a “soft landing” when strong GDP figures were released early this year. However, persistent inflation and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have since cast doubt on that outlook. Some disagreement remains, however; on Monday, the World Bank raised its growth forecast from 1.7% to 2%. 

How the Media Covered It: Coverage was widespread in business outlets, most of which are rated Center or Lean Left. Some coverage from the right and center labeled the IMF as a “Washington-based institution.”

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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth outlook for the year, warning the world economy faces the increased risk of a "hard landing" due to continued fallout from a spate of bank failures, higher interest rates and stubborn inflation. 

The Washington-based institution said in its latest World Economic Outlook that global gross domestic product will grow by just 2.8% this year – which represents a 0.1 percentage point decline from its previous forecast in January – before rising to 3% in 2024.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday rejected growing pessimism about the direction of the global economy, cautioning, “I wouldn’t overdo the negativism.”

The International Monetary Fund warned earlier in the day of an “anemic outlook” for the economy, thanks to higher interest rates aimed at taming inflation, deteriorating financial conditions amid banking turmoil, the war in Ukraine and geo-economic fragmentation.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than 30 years.

The Washington, D.C.-based institution said that five years from now, global growth is expected to be around 3% — the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

“The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic,” the fund said in its latest economic outlook.