This sentence from Nate Cohn in the New York Times is likely to thrill a lot of Republicans who hunger for good news about the upcoming midterms: “That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.”

Thirty five Senate seats are up for reelection in November, but only eight are considered toss-ups, according to RealClearPolitics. Of those, there are three that are most likely to determine which party controls the Senate, according to research firm Beacon Policy Advisors.

In a report released Friday, Beacon predicted “the likely tipping point race to be Georgia, a purple state that is still to the right of the nation by about three points.”

Two prominent election forecasting models now give Democrats a 70% or better chance of retaining their Senate majority in November, a major shift that suggests the fight for control may no longer be the toss-up that it has long been considered.

The FiveThirtyEight election model finds that in 70 out of 100 election simulations, Democrats emerge from 2022 in the majority. The Economist's model is even more optimistic for the party, finding that in 78 out of 100 simulations, Democrats retain their majority in November.

With just under nine weeks to go until November’s midterm elections, the top non-partisan political handicappers point to a toss-up between the Democrats and Republicans in the battle for the Senate majority.

The Senate is currently split 50/50 between the two major parties, but the Democrats control the majority thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. That means the GOP needs a net gain of just one seat to regain the majority they lost when they were swept in the Jan. 5, 2021, twin Senate runoffs in Georgia.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., seized on remarks about abortion that his Democratic Senate opponent Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., made in a recent interview, giving his take on why the congresswoman stopped short of giving a precise time at which she believes abortion should not be an available option.

Demings had told CBS Miami over the weekend that she believes in a right to abortion up to the point of viability, but when asked if that meant 24 weeks, which is roughly the standard that has been used in the past, she would not commit to that mark or any other.

Marco Rubio may be a bumbling excuse for a US senator, but when it comes to Florida politics, he’s no fool. A career politician and failed presidential contender, Rubio is campaigning this year for a third term as Florida’s senior senator. And he’s running scared.

Democrats are seeing new glimmers of hope for their chances of ousting Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in Florida after months of hand-wringing over just how aggressively they should pursue his seat.

Florida voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to determine which candidates will have the chance to face off in this November’s general election. Voters will cast ballots in races for the governorship and Congress, all the way down to circuit courts and local school boards.

A special congressional election in upstate New York on Tuesday could offer a unique window into whether abortion access is animating voters as much as Democrats hope it can.

Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan are squaring off this week in New York’s 19th Congressional District, which former Rep. Antonio Delgado vacated in May to become the state’s lieutenant governor.

The big question on Florida Democrats’ minds: Can they beat Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)?

The party’s voters on Tuesday are set to choose between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), a former Republican governor who’s making his second attempt at reclaiming his old office, and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the lone statewide elected Democrat, in the primary to challenge DeSantis this fall.