Hamas’ attack on Israel is bringing pressure on President Joe Biden to clamp down on Iranian oil exports — even at the risk of provoking a politically damaging spike in world oil prices.

Several of the world’s biggest oil producers say they are cutting production, and that means oil prices are higher. It’s probably not ideal for gas prices, inflation, and consumers, but it’s also not the worst. That is the TL;DR of what is happening on oil right now.

Russia said it plans to cut its oil production by around 500,000 barrels a day, or about 5%, next month, sending crude prices higher in a move that Moscow said was in response to Western sanctions.

Russia throttled back and then halted most exports of natural gas to Europe in response to sanctions imposed on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine. It has threatened to use its vast production of all sorts of commodities, including oil, to punch back against those economic restrictions.

Crude oil futures fell to their lowest level of the year Wednesday amid growing concern about the state of the global economy.

Why it matters: Crude oil prices are a tell on the global economy, which looks like it could be in trouble.

Driving the news: The sell-off came despite ostensibly good news for the economy, as China announced plans to scrap the harsh regime of testing, quarantine and lockdowns that have pushed the nation's growth rate well below goals set by officials.

The U.S. economy can’t be this weird forever. That’s what I keep telling myself, anyway. Eventually, I think, financial news will be boring again. Eventually, I pray, the U.S. economy won’t resemble some ever-morphing Rorschach blot. But after a year of shortages, a Great Resignation, and rising inflation, I’m still waiting for normalcy.

Here are three questions that get to the heart of what makes this moment so strange. Answering them, or at least attempting to answer them, could help indicate where things go in the second half of the year.

Inflation has peaked. The Fed’s tightening has accomplished its mission. Strong labor market and consumer fundamentals will keep any recession mild.

These are among the story lines providing a tailwind to stocks in recent weeks. They feed hopes the Federal Reserve has achieved a soft landing: bringing inflation down to 2% without pushing up unemployment or tipping the economy into recession.

June’s awful US inflation numbers are a reminder of tough days ahead for many in America and around the world, and especially the most vulnerable segments of the population and the most fragile developing countries.

This is not because inflation will record yet another four-decade high over the next three months. It won’t. Rather, it is because of the damage already unleashed and that which is to come.

When the latest data on consumer prices in the United States landed Wednesday, the headline number was ugly.

Inflation surged to 9.1% in June, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was higher than economists polled by Refinitiv were forecasting.

It was also much higher than the 8.6% rate logged in May, which rattled financial markets and pushed the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively — renewing fears about whether the central bank could tame inflation without triggering a recession.

‘We have got a critical situation. I really think we have a problem for the next six months…once it gets to these parabolic states, markets can move and they can spike quite a lot.’

— Jeremy Weir, chief executive, Trafigura

That’s Jeremy Weir, who heads up Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity traders, sounding the alarm bell at the FT Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday, according to the Financial Times. He’s the latest bigwig to sound the alarm over the potential for global economic turmoil as the Russia-Ukraine war stokes energy-market volatility.

The surge in gasoline prices is impossible to miss and at the top of consumers’ minds as billboards announce that gas now costs $4, or $5, or even above $6 a gallon in some places.

With prices at record highs, Americans are feeling the impact at the pump immediately. But higher fuel prices are a headwind for the wider economy too, beyond just consumers having less spending money. The rising cost of fuel, especially diesel, means that anything transported on a truck, train or ship is affected.