Former President Trump and the Republicans have an opportunity, indeed their first opportunity, to fundamentally change the presidential race in ways that would have been hard to do before Saturday’s tragic assassination attempt on a former president.

If Trump, as he has stated, changes the tone and register of his RNC convention speech away from partisan, "pro-MAGA" rhetoric toward emphasizing the need for unity, conciliation and cooperation in our society in the face of violence and division, then he has a chance – in a way never possible previously in the history of this election – to bring people together. 

Not only would this endear him to swing voters, but particularly those who may dislike President Biden but had been turned off by Trump’s fiery rhetoric.

The one thing that has been clear in the polling so far this year is that the race has been relatively breaking for Trump, as the former president has maintained a lead for the last eight or nine months.